金砖国家发展战略对接：迈向共同繁荣的路径——中外联合研究报告(No.3)(英文版)(txt+pdf+epub+mobi电子书下载)

作者：王灵桂 赵江林 主编

出版社：社会科学文献出版社

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金砖国家发展战略对接：迈向共同繁荣的路径——中外联合研究报告(No.3)(英文版)试读：

Preface and Acknowledgements

The word “BRIC” first originated from a foreign minister’s meeting between Brazil，Russia，India and China during the 2006 General Assembly of the United Nations. The concept was based on an idea brought forth by a chief economist from Goldman Sachs and extended into an international economic body. In 2010，with the joining of South thAfrica，BRIC became BRICS. From September 3 to 5，as the 9 BRICS summit opens in Xiamen，China，the curtains will be opened on the second golden decade of development. Therefore，this book is born.

In the joint effort of the member states，BRICS countries have successfully cooperated for 10 years. From an investment concept in economic report to the arena of global governance，to becoming a shiny placard in cooperation between emerging markets and developing countries，the BRICS countries achieved significantly in cooperation in politics，economy，security and cultural affairs. As cooperation field of BRICS countries expand，from unilateral to bilateral，from single to multi dimension，from trade and investment in the beginning to tourism，finances，culture and science，from trade to enterprises and global governance reform negotiations，from governmental communications to party communications to think tank，culture，science，technology，education and legislative communications，from domestic issues to negotiations on international issues，from bilateral to multilateral cooperation，the BRICS cooperation has become an important force in stimulating world economic growth，perfecting global governance and making international relations about people’s welfare.

At present，the international situation is complicated. Under the shadow of an international financial crisis，all countries around the world are having a hard time and the BRICS countries are no exception. They face many complicated and harsh challenges in further development. How should BRICS countries further strengthen cooperation and continue to be front runners of pushing global governance？How should they stay unshaken by storms，undisturbed by discords and unobstructed by difficulties，continue constructing and strengthening a partnership that maintains world peace，enhances joint development，publicizes multilateral civilization and increases global economic governance，in order to achieve greater development？

In this process where challenges can be turned as opportunities，pressure turned as motivation，from Ufa to Goa to Xiamen，BRICS cooperation increases in height，especially needs leadership from the five countries to frequently visit each other，hear each other’s opinions，consider the world’s situation from the perspective of other [1]countries.“Strengthening cooperation with BRICS countries has always been a priority in Chinese diplomatic relations. China will keep strengthening cooperation with BRICS countries and increase economic growth，complete cooperation framework and produce more results，in order to bring benefits for the people and contribute [2]more to world peace and development.”. BRICS countries will definitely “lead cooperation with an open mind，promote developing according to economic rules，fully exploit the ‘golden rules’ of dialogue，exercise the political wisdom of ‘finding common ground while admitting differences，’ establish the ‘path of confidence’ with BRICS cooperation and make BRICS cooperation into the origin of new ideas in global governance.” When President Xi Jinping was attending an informal BRICS leadership meeting in Turkey on November 15，2015，he pointed out that “the world needs to have a [3]new view on the makeup of the BRICS.” On July 7，2017，Xi Jinping made a conclusion speech while presiding at an informal meeting of BRICS leadership conference in Hamburg，bringing out [4]ththe four “unwavering.” We believe that the 9 BRICS summit in Xiamen，China will become a new starting point for BRICS countries to step up to a whole new level and will take BRICS cooperation into the key development stage of a second decade.

“BRICS research project” is one of the key projects of the National Institute for Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In the long term，we followed the principle of “setting foot on domestic matters，using foreign experiences to advertise domestic affairs，closely follow and pay attention to commentary from foreign strategic think tanks on BRICS development，as a grassroots research path and method. On May 14，2017，chairman of board of directors Cai Fang brought forth a five-point suggestion to more than 200 directors of strategic think tanks and experts on how to promote joint research project on the Belt and Road during the “think tank parallel forum” in the “Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.” He said that first，we need to jointly plan topics and promote joint research. Each think tank has its own specialty and field and can contribute wisdom to Belt and Road construction in all ways. Through joint research，we can find common interests，which can help the execution of Belt and Road to be close to reality and the people. Second，establish a sharing mechanism for academic results. Periodic or aperiodic strengthening of academic exchange is one of the best ways of keeping interaction between think tanks. It helps with deepening understanding and exchanges of ideas. Third，share cultivation of talents. We should encourage visiting of researchers，cultivation of post-doc candidates between think tanks. The visits and exchanges can be short term and can be long term，with the goal of cultivating special talents who are interested in research on Belt and Road and can have achievements. Fourth，jointly publish results. The form of publishing joint research reports can enable people to make calls on important concerns and produce vast societal influence，which is beneficial to pushing government decision. Fifth，hold aperiodic joint conferences and establish a daily contact mechanism. Conference is the most direct way of strengthening communication，helpful to generating new ideas and suggestions. On the other hand，daily contact is necessary，we are gradually accumulating experience in this field.

He also called that “In pushing Belt and Road，we first need to communicate，know what each other are worried about，what each other need，in order to have cooperation. We hope to establish a think tank alliance，a think tank net. In this alliance，in this net，what we need to do is to better serve our research to practice，to have Belt and Road better serve to China’s and the world’s development in all aspects. In this alliance，this net，people can survive together，gather ideas，and form a mechanism of long term cooperation through people exchanges，cooperative research and information exchanges. We can have interaction and communication at least in the field of academia and build it as an example of people connecting [5]along the Belt and Road. This is also the origin of us paying attention to strengthening contact and integration with BRICS think tanks and treat joint research as an important channel of research. It’s the realization and forum of the “opening up and establish think tanks” concept brought forth by chairman Cai Fang and can be an exploration and attempt of our research work that serves our domestic fellowmen.

On June 8-9，2017，we held the first BRICS think tank forum with Guangming Think Tank and University of International Relations in Beijing. The forum was titled “2017 BRICS Think-Tanks Forum-The coordination of BRICS Development Strategies：Way to Shared Prosperity” and invited about 50 government officials and experts from BRICS’ main think tanks to discuss the cooperation and development of the BRICS countries in the next 10 years to come. The book is a presentation of the joint research and sharing of the exchange of viewpoints.

In the future，National Institute for Global Strategy think tank is willing to conduct scientific and deep joint research with think tanks from BRICS countries and other experts and scholars on the future developmental route of BRICS mechanism，to support BRICS countries to “keep deepening partnership for a brighter future” with our wisdom. At the same time，in this process，we can also form a good “partnership” with BRICS think tanks and together we can push for a “bright future” of think tank cooperation. This is our wish and one of our academic goals.[1] 陆忠伟：《金砖合作的‘形’与‘势’》，《人民政协报》2017年6月13日。[2] 习近平：《携手合作，共同发展》，《习近平谈治国理政》，外文出版社，2014，第326页。[3] 新华网：《习近平在金砖国家领导人非正式会晤上的讲话》，2015年11月16日03：11：15。[4] 一要毫不动摇构建开放型世界经济；二要毫不动摇奉行多边主义；三要毫不动摇加强全球经济治理；四要毫不动摇推动共同发展。参见《习近平主持金砖国家领导人非正式会晤》，新华网，2017年7月7日20：10：17。[5] 中国社会科学院副院长、中国社会科学院国家全球战略智库理事长蔡昉教授2017年5月14日下午在“智库平行论坛”上的发言。

Deepen BRICS Partnership for a Brighter Future

What’s different from other cooperative organizations in the world is that BRICS started as a concept in investment and later transformed into a complex concept that includes politics，economy，security and culture. Since the first BRICS leadership summit in 2006，even though there have been multiple challenges，the BRICS countries achieved great development in multiple fields，layers and in mechanization and becoming the BRICS power in global governance and put in efforts in promoting justice and fairness，openness and tolerance in world development. On July 7，2017，when President Xi Jinping was residing an informal conference of BRICS leadership in Hamburg，he brought forth the four “unwavering” on the future [1]development of BRICS cooperation. The four unwavering declares the historical responsibilities and cooperation goals BRICS countries should shoulder，in order to input their own efforts for the development of developing countries and joint development of the world.Status and Function of BRICS in World Economic Layout

Because of the BRICS countries’ perspective status in their regions，their own abilities and importance in the world，they have transformed from an economic concept into a compound concept. This article tends to discuss more of their economic cooperation，so the evaluation of the BRICS’ international status is mainly focused on an economic aspect.

The BRICS are distributed in Asia，Africa，Europe and Latin America. In 2016 their total population took up about 41.9% of the worlds and GDP about 22.4% of the world’s. From establishment to 2016，they contributed more than 50% to the growth of world [2]economy. In recent years the change in status of BRICS countries in world economy can be shown from the following aspects：

First，there’s a relatively rapid growth of overall abilities. In 2016，the GDP of the BRICS reached 16，848 billion USD，taking up 22.6% of world GDP in 2015，from 6.6% in 1980，growing 20 percentage points in 35 years（Table 1）. In 2015，the economic prowess of BRICS has surpassed the European Union and is close to the US. From the estimates of the International Monetary Fund，it will surpass the US in 2020.Table 1 BRICS GDP in world’s share（unit：%，billion dollars）

Second，the openness of the BRICS is increasing by day and their influence on the world is increasing continuously. Th status shift of BRICS in world trade is especially notable，especially in imports. The scale of products BRICS imported from the world went up from 9.9% in 2005 to 15.3% in 2015，service product imports from 8.5% to 15.4%. The increase of status of developing countries in world import mainly come from BRICS（Table 2 and 3）. As of capital flow，in the past，the BRICS attracted foreign investment mainly and now the countries are increasing investment in other countries. BRICS attracted 768.5 billion USD of foreign investment in 2005，and it went up to 2，372.5 billion USD in 2015，increasing 3.1 times. At the same time，investment scale from the BRICS went up from 313.1 billion USD to 1，745.4 billion USD，going up 5.6 times. The percentage of investment scale against the world’s went up from 2.6% to 7%（Table 4）.Table 2 BRICS Product Import and Export & World Percentage（unit：100 million USD，%）Table 3 BRICS Service Import and Export & Percentage Against the World’s（unit：100 million USD，%）Table 4 BRICS Investment Flow from 2005-2015

Third，BRICS countries are still in a development phase，not yet in developed economies’ phase. Right now，the average per capita GDP in BRICS countries is under 10，000 USD，of which Brazil，China and Russia are above 8，000 USD. Judging from World Bank’s standards，they are already in medium-high income level. South Africa is above 5，000 USD，belonging to medium-income country，and India less than 2，000 USD，belonging to medium-low income country（Table 5）.Table 5 BRICS Per capita Income Level and Urbanization Ratio

Fourth，the domestic development within the BRICS is unbalanced. Judging from per capita GDP，the difference in development level within the BRICS countries is increasing. From 2020，Brazil，China and Russia will enter beginning level of high-income country，while South Africa and India will keep medium and medium-low income levels. At the same time，the urbanization rate differs greatly within BRICS（see Table 5），from 32.4% in India to 84.2% in Brazil，which shows there’s still a large room for cooperation among the BRICS. Judging from technology innovation，China and India’s innovation efficiency ranks higher than total rank（see Table 6），especially China，which ranks third in the world. In comparison，the other BRICS countries rank behind world average，even countries like South Africa and Brazil. this means not only South Africa and Brazil are limited in their future development potential，also that if the present structure is not changed，the unbalance of BRICS inner development will keep increasing.Table 6 2017 Global Innovation Index

Fifth，the future development potential of BRICS is huge. Since the 1990s，BRICS countries’ economic growth is higher than global level and higher than developing countries and developed countries and other categories（Table 7）. In the future，BRICS countries to keep sustaining an economic growth rate that excels other countries or regions.Table7 BRICS GDP Growth Rate from 1992-2016（unit：%）Status and Characteristics of BRICS Cooperation

Even though the BRICS countries have characteristics of their own，one common element they share is that they are all regional influencial countries and can have a constructive effect in their own regions. This influence produced by economic and political status made BRICS countries steady forces in global governance，making them supporting powers in changing the imbalance and difference of global economic and political development. For a long time，the main forces of global politics and economy are concentrated in Europe and the US，developing countries can have limited chances from the global political economic order. As BRICS concept formed，global traditional political and economic order are shifting from new directions，trying to win more outside support and creating new cooperation mechanisms to structure a starting point for BRICS countries’ motivation and cooperation.

From the first summit in 2006 till now，BRICS has lasted for 10 years. From topic design，mechanism building to practical operation，BRICS countries have made great achievements. Table8 lists main topics discussed by BRICS in former summits and main achievements. The main characteristics of BRICS cooperation are：

First，the steadiness of BRICS cooperation. Even though in the past 10 years，BRICS countries were surrounded by all sorts of rumors and criticism，such as the theory of “diminishing colors，” but BRICS countries have been “sharpening a sword in 10 years，” kept pushing cooperation to go deeper and steadier step by step. In concept，BRICS insists development first，focuses energy in developing economy and improving people’s lives；in principle they insist openness，tolerance，cooperation and win-win，focusing on structuring a mechanism and cooperation structure that’s all-aspect and multilayer；in moral，they support international justice and fairness，striving to having a voice in important international and regional issues. At present，BRICS has already become an international mechanism with great importance and has pushed for global governance reform and promoting presentation and say of [3]emerging market economies and developing countries. As President Xi Jinping pointed out on July 15，2014 when he was attending the sixth BRICS leadership meeting in Brazil，BRICS countries jointly voiced their opinions in many important international and regional questions and contributed to promoting world economy growth and completing global economic governance，pushing for democratization of international relations and have become an important force in international relations as well as active constructers of international system.

Second，BRICS is stepping towards mechanization. Since the leaders of China，Russia，India and Brazil first met in June 2009，BRICS has completed the transition from a virtual economics concept to an international cooperation platform. At present，members of BRICS come from Asia，Europe，Africa and America，there are a total of 28 cooperation mechanisms，14 of which are at the ministerial level and 9 at high official level，5 from other fields，forming a multi-rail，broad-region，multiple-layered united profit body that covers multiple levels，such as leadership summit，financial commissioners，young diplomats and media representatives，concerning economists，grass-roots representatives，government officials and groups from society and political bureaus. BRICS pushed for the establishment of a New Development Bank and arrangements for emergency fund reserves，and as two multilateral financial organizations gradually became established and operations began filling in place，BRICS complemented and improved the multi-lateral cooperation mechanism and international development organizations under the Bretton Wood System. The establishment and operation of BRICS leadership meeting mechanism not only helps these countries to improve influence and cohesion，but also provides a chance for coordination and a platform for exchanges for the developing countries to unite their viewpoints and recognition when participating in global governance.

Third，BRICS countries can cooperate in a variety of fields. Right now，some of the fields include：economy，fiscal，finances，agriculture，education，health，technology，culture，drug ban，statistics，tourism，think tank，friendly cities and local government cooperation. These fields reflect the interest of BRCIS countries and the regions they represent，as well as developing countries’ interest. Of course，under the current cooperation foundation and motivation，BRICS countries cannot cover all cooperation fields and need to make choices，which lead to development of cooperation in each field to be unbalanced，some fields have achieved greatly while some fields not so much. All in all，BRICS countries achieved more development in mechanization of financial field，which originates from the BRICS high-[4]level agreement on fighting global risks，especially financial risks. They cope with development risks brought by outside world to BRICS countries and even developing countries through their own efforts and hope to win development opportunities through self-constructing new mechanisms. Furthermore，there can be multiple goals of BRICS cooperation，which leads to BRICS cannot have development in accordance when cooperating. As regional influencial countries，even global influencial countries，BRICS identity decided the countries cooperate with multiple goals. They need to satisfy their own interests and demands for political and economic development. Second，they represent their respective regions and demand the international society for regional members’ economic and social development. Third，they represent developing countries，hope to win more international development space for developing countries. Because of this multiple goal，it decided that BRICS countries cooperate in complexity. When the three goals agree，BRICS countries can push for faster cooperation. But when the five countries cannot reach an agreement under some cooperation goal，then the difficulty of cooperation is increased.Main Questions Faced by BRICS Cooperation

The main questions BRICS countries face are from within，not the outside，or that they are not shown on the outside.

First，BRICS countries are still exploring their directions and need to make clear of their cooperation goals and direction，which leads to uncertainty in BRICS cooperation. At present，the trend of global economic recovery is still weak，global trade and investment

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