作者：邹瑾
出版社：西南财经大学出版社
格式: AZW3, DOCX, EPUB, MOBI, PDF, TXT
中国房地产金融风险防范研究：对资产证券化方式的思考试读：
前言
加速中国房地产金融领域改革业已成为学界和实务界的共识。2007年前，我国学界普遍看好资产证券化手段，希望借此弱化我国房地产业间接融资为主的金融结构所导致的银行信贷扩张与房地产泡沫的风险联动。肇始于2007年的全球金融危机提醒我们，在以资产证券化方式对我国房地产业融资模式进行变革的过程中，必须注意规避模式变革中的泡沫与陷阱。在厚重的制度转轨背景下，中国房地产市场更多地呈现出一种多层次、多利益主体博弈的市场特性。同时，由于权力集团介入、不同集团结盟与对立，中国房地产市场的利益分配结构和风险承担格局更加扭曲和复杂。基于此，考察我国房地产金融模式的稳定变革已不能单纯援引金融逻辑加以解释，特定的利益关系结构是我国资产证券化持续发展的最大桎梏。
本书正是基于上述现实焦点问题来研究资产证券化与中国房地产金融风险防范问题，希冀对证券化方式下具有典型意义的风险事实做出合理解释，结合对我国房地产金融风险阶段性特征及其成因的解析，为实现我国房地产金融层次提升与风险规避提供新的理论支持。全书围绕以下两个问题勾勒出研究框架：一是证券化条件下房地产金融风险生成机制有什么新变化，二是在中国特殊国情下房地产金融风险的生成机制是怎样的。旨在从一般情况与特殊国情两个层面来考察资产证券化手段是否为化解中国房地产金融风险的良方。研究的重点在我国，研究的中心是房地产金融风险的生成机制。
根据研究内容与研究思路的演进，全书共分五章。第一章导论，介绍本书的研究背景与意义、前期文献、研究方法与研究视角的选择、结构安排和主要创新点与局限。第二章房地产金融风险生成的分析框架，主要阐述了房地产金融风险的基本概念与理论渊源，进而推演出不同金融结构下房地产金融风险生成机制的一般性框架，为全书构建研究平台。第三章国外市场化实践：对次贷危机的审视与第四章国情下的思考：利益主体作用与我国房地产金融风险的生成是本书的核心内容，回答了前述两个主要问题。对问题一是基于金融视角的局部分析，指出资产证券化方式下房地产金融风险生成机制的新变化（第三章）；对问题二则是基于多市场的分析，从房地产产业链出发，剖析多市场各利益主体对我国房地产金融风险生成的作用机理（第四章）。第五章基本结论与展望针对美国房地产金融风险生成机制的新特征与我国房地产金融风险生成的成因分析，指出了治理中美房地产金融风险的共同法则，与我国化解房地产金融风险之道的特殊性，对化解我国房地产金融风险的整体思维框架进行了初步探索。
在本书研究和写作过程中，参阅了国内外大量文献资料，得到了导师陈野华教授的鼓励、支持和悉心指导，得到了曾康霖教授、刘锡良教授、邓乐平教授、倪克勤教授、曹廷贵教授的指导和帮助，得到了四川大学、西南财经大学很多领导、同事、老师、同学和朋友的帮助，在此向他们致以诚挚的谢意。由于水平和条件所限，书中谬误难免，恳请专家和同仁批评指正。邹瑾2011年7月
Abstract
Without doubt，there is highly relevance between the real estate industry and the financial system. On the one hand，the real estate industry and the financial system sustain each other. On the other hand，they further risk. In China，banks are the main means of financing for real estate market. Before2007，scholars his-torically have tended to think of systemic risk primarily in terms of financial institutions such as banks and have reached a common view that the less risky finan-cial structure should be made to resemble the financial structure of the US economy and development of financial markets so that the reliance on the banking system is reduced，which is regarded as an important means to reduce risk with real estate finance. In 2007，subprime crisis occurred，struck the economy，and caused strong repercussions around the world. The conventional view has been doubted. Certainly，we can't give up development of financial markets for this crisis，but the particular features of risk in US financial structure is undoubted to deserve an in-depth research. Unfortunately，there has been relatively little research. Meanwhile，the most particular feature of Chinese real estate market is involved with all kinds of participators such as central government，local govern ments，banks，housing developers and housing buyers（buyers for consuming and buyers for investment），and their relationship is complicated. The conventional researches are always based on the formation mechanism of banking systemic risk，which emphasize their its technologic analyses on the financial system. There are too little explorations on the formation mechanism in an interest group perspective.
Based on these backgrounds，this book tries to find the inwardness of the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance，and make that clear both in US and China. Two key issues are proposed in this paper，and from these two issues' derivation we outlined the whole research framework. The first problem is that what are the new particular features of risk in US financial structure？And the second problem is that how about the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance of China？The purpose of this paper is to see about whether marketization is a good means for reducing the risk of real estate finance of China both in the technical and the Chinese unique situation senses. In a word，the author puts the stress on the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance in China.
This book includes five chapters，which can be divided into three sections on the whole except the introduction. Section1 mainly states the theoretical basis of risk with real estate finance and derives theoretically general framework of the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance to provide facilities for the whole. This section mainly includes Chapter 2. Section 2 answers the two main problems：the new risk features in US real estate finance and the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance in China. This section mainly includes chapter3 and chapter4 and it's the core of this paper. Section3 proposes improving channels，including the common principle for both US and China，the solution mode of China and conducts a preliminary exploration on financial risk governance framework of China. This section mainly includes chapter5.
Specific contents and points are as follows：
Chapter1 is the introduction. It gives a briefing on the significance of topics and research background，the basic ideas and chapter structure，methodology and the basic assumptions used，and the innovations of this paper.
Chapter2 is the analytic framework of the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance，which mainly analyses the basic conceptions and historical development of formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance. Three parts are completed in this chapter. First，It points out that the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance can be unified in the same framework. It points out that soul of formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance is whether there is correct valuation of risk by financial system and the key factors are the information（incentive）issues，and liquidity provision. On the one hand，information incomplete and information asymmetry will incur the overvaluation of real estate assets（the undervaluation of risk）from financial system（institution or market），then the excess liquidity provision，and then the real estate bubble. On the other hand，real estate financial crises depend on the relationship between property price and liquidity provision from financial system. Abundant liquidity provision means risk sharing and insurance at any moment. There is no discount of assets to incur crisis. Second，introduce a new view to research the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance，which can clap the core virtues of aforesaid framework. In conventional point，market is better than government by informa-tion and incentive. Securitization not only brings along more participators，but also set up mechanism for supervising and balance. All the participators recognize and control the risk perfectly，and form the correct valuation of risk. Subprime crisis reflects that there are also limitations to solve information problem in securitized finance，then incur misevaluation of real estate assets，and then incur crisis involved with the effect of liquidity provision. This gives the research view for subprime crisis，from which of the information and liquidity provision to get the new features of securitized finance. Third，on the basis of particular situation in China，build an analytic framework of the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance in China，and introduce the perspective. The potential logic of the aforesaid framework doesn't tally with China's situation，which is that the miseval-uation of risk by financial system arise speculation. On one hand，interest rates are not likely to move to their market-clearing levels in funds market，and the action and function of financial system is limited. On the other hand，the real estate bubble in China is arisen for the unbalances of the demand and the supply，but not speculation. So the heart of the analytical framework real estate industry should be involved with interest group but not finance.
Chapter3 is the marktization practice overseas-survey of subprime crisis，which analyses the new features of formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance in market - oriented countries from information economy and liquidity views. First，this chapter provides an overview of the subprime mortgage securitization process and the seven key informational frictions involved with the mortgagor，the originator，the arranger，the third-parties，the servicer，the asset man-ager and the investor，discussing the ways that market participants work to minimize these frictions and speculate on how this process broke down，with emphasis on the important part of the rating process. It points out that the root of subprime crisis is information issues（adverse selection，moral hazard，and agency problem）. The participators can't recognize and control risk perfectly，and can not form the correct valuation of risk. Second，it analyses three new features in secu-ritized real estate finance significantly：（1）Market participants are more dependent on market liquidity. Alongside the traditional bank - mediated liquidity，there is a second and growing component intermediaries are willing to extend to each other.（2）There is a close interaction between liquidity and valuation；new contagion channels have appeared.（3）Uncertainty has a bigger impact than before on market and funding liquidity. Finally，it analyses governance briefly，pointing that this crisis is undoubted to be an opportunity to improve the traditional ideas of framework of government policy and financial supervision. The author-ities should balance the price stability and asset price stability considerately，with emphasis on financial stability. Banking regulation needs to be designed to solve market failures rather than imposed piecemeal as a reaction to crises.
Chapter4 is thoughts in Chinese situation：interest group and the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance in China. This chapter is the most im-portant part of this book. It arms to make clear the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance of China from the view of multiparticipants and multi-markets focused on the commodity houses market，including the primary land market，funds market and supervisor. There are mainly two parts in this chapter. Part1 analyses the situation of real estate market in China，and points out that the most particular feature is the unbalance among the different participants，which made the heart of the framework of risk with real estate finance is not fi-nance but real estate industry. Part 2 is the main body of this chapter，seeking for the formation mechanism of risk with real estate finance in Chinese particular situation. There are three steps to analysis the formation mechanism based on the features of real estate market and pricing mechanism. First，it defines the monopolization of real estate market，and makes clear that the pricing mechanism is cost added with monopoly profit，pointing out that the analytical issues of real estate bubble should be cost in up-markets and monopoly profit in main market. Second，it analyses the relationship among land cost，funds cost，and housing price in up-markets and main market. Third，it analyses the strengthening of seller-biased market. In China，three factors make the real estate market an imperfect market，which are the same benefit among developers，local governments and banks，the real estate shortage involved with land shortage，the formation of effective demand（sustained by the income increasing and bank mortgage loan provision）. The suppliers can transfer the cost to under-market participants easily，and gain the monopoly profit. The unbalance of the demand and the supply can incur real estate bubble easily. Then，for in-depth analysis of the mechanism，it builds an essential economic model from the two sides of the supply and the demand，to introduces the constraint conditions arisen by interest group to make it understand mcre easily. After proved that in theory，it quantifies the seller's mar-ket extent to prove the theoretical analysis. Finally，it analyses the cause of bubble burst and contagion channels.
Chapter 5 is the concluding remarks and perspective，which provides the whole frame of reference and thoughts on ways to reduce the risk. There are mainly two parts in this chapter. Part1 gives the two principles to govern the risk in China：market self -regulation and interest balancing based on the analysis and comparison on the mechanisms in U. S. and in China. On the one hand，the same principle to govern the risk in both countries is to perfect market incentive and restraint mechanism. On the other hand，there are difference in develop-ment stage and background in different countries. The economy is a market-collocation economy in U. S. This crisis just reveals the market failure and chan-nels to perfect. In China，the transition economy is a compound economy，and it is a transition stage between market system and centralization system. The formation mechanism in China is involved with interest group，and the governance is also involving interest group. Marketization is not only to define and introduce instruments，but also create and re-build the relationship of interest group. Part2 presents channels to perfect the commodity houses market，primary land market，and funds market respectively. First，the problem in the commodity houses market is the dislocation of market，and the vacancy of government. The solution way is to resume the housing guarantee system by government to balance market force as well as to perfect an efficient and healthy commodity houses market. Second，the situation depends on the environmental development，including incentive and restraint mechanism，the core of reform is not destroy interest group，but develop market step by step to help balance. Finally，introduces exploration to marketiza-tion in funds market from the finance function and interest group perspective. Develop market is also a process to re-build the relationship of interest group. An efficient real estate finance system should do the six basic functions well，but not just change of scale or form，with the establishment of the institution environment and the whole network.
The main innovations of this book are as follows：
First，this book investigates the particular feature of real estate market in China based on the new political economy perspective. It points out that govern-ment and market both function in resource allocation. The risk with real estate finance is interest unbalance in special environment of China. Marketization is not just building of exterior rules，but involved with the re-building，running-in，and formation of interior rules. The arm of introducing constraint mechanism（exterior rules）in market is to balance the interest group，form some interior rule to make interest group work of itself and the market efficient.
Second，this book，which attempts to clap at the core virtues of transition phenomenon，applies principles of economics to build equilibrium model，and applies statistics techniques to prove the theory. It reveals that the formation of risk with real estate finance（the formation of real estate bubble）in China is determined by the unbalance of the supply and the demand in the markets based on the pricing mechanism in monopoly market in three steps.
Third，this book puts forward how to reduce the risk in whole and in different markets based on the analyses in U. S. and in China. On the one hand，the essential solution way is the basic impetuses made by market. On the other hand，when we explore the solution way，we must attach importance to think the special“constraint conditions”in China. The author emphasizes that the reform in funds market is not change of scales or forms，and we can't understand that just in financial perspective. It is also involved with social relationship re -building . The development of financial modes should attempt to make the financial functions work well，and change the social structure and relationship.
The limitations and follow-up study of this book are as follows：
First，the optimal path to reduce risk has not been studied in-depth in this book. Finally，because of the lack of data，some analysis has not been comprehensive. The above limitations and shortcomings of this book need to perfect.
1 导论
1.1 研究背景及选题意义
长期以来，世界各国房地产金融风险不断，虽表现形式各异，但都对经济金融发展造成了重大冲击和危害。目前，我国房地产业融资主要依靠银行信贷，由此导致银行系统风险的几率也在大幅增加。早在2003年第三季度，中国人民银行《中国货币政策执行报告》中就指出，“对房地产开发贷款高速增长中可能存在的系统性信贷风险应当予以警惕”。此后，重视房地产金融风险的呼声不断见诸各传媒。同时，对于如何防范和化解我国房地产金融风险的政策建议也成为业界热议的话题。当前，我国房地产金融发展正处在初级阶段，房地产金融发展的方向和未来的路径选择正处于一个重要的十字路口，同时也面临着来自对国际经济金融危机反思和国内特殊国情约束的影响和挑战。如何看待这些思潮，突破特殊国情的瓶颈约束，从而汲取有益的经验教训，并作出有利于我国房地产金融长期健康发展的战略决策，是我们必须面对的重大历史课题！
有鉴于此，本书基于我国单一融资的现实背景、次贷危机的国际背景以及我国房地产市场特殊利益之争三个研究背景，研究中国房地产金融风险防范问题，旨在从一个逻辑起点之上循序导出对两个中心问题的理解和阐述，从而提出有益的政策建议和路径选择。
1.1.1 单一融资的现实背景→逻辑起点：资产证券化是防范风险的重要手段
房地产商品具有价值量大且生产集约化、建设使用期限长的特点，这决定了房地产业发展过程中对大量长期稳定资金的依赖。一方面，金融业对房地产业的支持成为其产业发展的基础与动力；另一方面，我国房地产融资渠道单一，可能导致房地产金融危机，加速中国房地产金融领域改革业已成为学界和实务界的共识。
放眼全球，从历史的视角看，房地产融资体系的变化是与房地产业与金融业的风险互动密不可分的。在20世纪80年代以前，全球房地产金融都大量依赖于本国储蓄机构，在美国储贷协会危机、日本泡沫经济破灭与亚洲金融危机等历次经济金融危机中，房地产信贷损失及其诱发的风险都是银行机构倒闭的重要原因。即便是房地产金融证券化程度最高的美国，其住房融资最初也主要依赖于间接融资渠道。直到1988年美国储贷危机爆发，融资渠道变革才成为改革的应有之意。与此同时，大量关注于房地产与金融风险互动的文献，其视角基本集中在银行信贷对房地产周期波动的放大作用。比较一致的观点是：无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，房地产周期波动与银行业危机在各种不同的制度安排下，都有着显著的关联性，其影响的结果取决于一国金融体系对银行体系的依赖程度。
在这一背景下，资产证券化作为一种风险转移的方式，以“创造和分散”为基本模式，被金融业者广泛采用。银行创造贷款，并将其潜在的风险分散给无数的外部投资者，从而使信贷“在市场上大笔交易，而非出现在金融机构的资产负债表上”。这种方式的最大好处之一就是使整个系统在面临金融冲击时更具弹性。风险被分散到银行系统以外，流动性不再只由银行提供，而有了多个市场的支持，既减轻了银行系统的负担，也增大了对冲击的吸收能力。因此，传统观点认为，就其分散风险的特性而言，证券化的房地产金融运作是一种较优的房地产金融模式，资产证券化一度成为不同模式国家共同的发展趋向。年前，我国学界也普遍看好资产证券化手段，希望借此弱化我国房地产业间接融资为主的金融结构所导致的银行信贷扩张与房地产泡沫的风险联动，这是本书研究的逻辑起点。
1.1.2 次贷危机的国际背景→问题一：次贷危机是否对资产证券化的否定？
历史演进总是充满着不确定，任何一种制度总是难以实现跨越国界的无缝衔接。尽管资产证券化的融资途径被各国普遍采用，但其形式与程度却仍然存在较大差异。与此同时，2007年次贷危机的出现使我们开始意识到市场主导型的房地产金融模式仍然可能存在系统性风险。被理论界与实务界忽略甚久的资产证券化所联结的系统风险问题开始引起研究者的深思，也使人们不得不重新对未来我国房地产金融体系的构建进行审视。于是，有观点认为美国次贷危机应该成为中国的前车之鉴，需缓行甚至暂停我国资产证券化。
诚然，次贷危机暴露了美国房地产金融体系的一些问题，但制度变迁自有其自身的逻辑意义和内在机制。笔者认为，学习借鉴一种制度创新，必须对根植于这种制度的整个发展脉络内在的动因、运行方式和机制以及制度环境因素有着清晰把握和深刻理解，切不可基于表象断章取义，轻易下结论。基于此，揆度次贷危机发生的脉络和演进可以看出，这次危机绝不是对房地产融资证券化方式的否定。回顾历史，次贷危机只不过是房地产与金融共生风险在新时代的一种新形式而已。美国当前多元化、多层次的房地产金融体系正是建立在对20世纪80年代储贷危机反思的基础之上，资产证券化当时是作为一种分散银行系统风险的制度创新出现的。次贷危机导致的环境改变从理论上讲，正是诱导资产证券化创新不断演进从而更加贴近环境要求的制度变迁过程。我辈有幸亲眼目睹这种制度变迁的进程，更应体会到通过资产证券化分散风险的想法本身并没有错误，盲目的因噎废食并不明智。
知往鉴来。中国发展房地产金融证券的选择实际上是一种自觉的制度借鉴。因此，更需要我们厘清发达国家在资产证券化过程中失败的环节与教训，以站在巨人的肩上前行，这也正是本书试图回答的第一个问题。简言之，通过对次贷危机所暴露的问题做一理论和实践上的梳理，对于解决中国房地产金融体系的构建，在不断变化的金融系统中保持稳定，无疑都是具有重要的理论价值和现实意义的。
1.1.3 利益之争的国情现状→问题二：资产证券化就能解决中国问题吗
？我国当前仍然是转型经济社会。按转型经济学研究的观点，制度的演进取决于初始状态和政府主导的改革推动。与西方成熟市场经济国家相比，1998年，我国才结束福利分房的历史，房地产业市场运作仅十余年，土地等要素并没有实行完全的市场化配置，房地产业具有明显的转型特征，这些因素构成了我国融资模式选择的初始条件。西方房地产金融资产证券化的理论与实践无疑对我国房地产金融体系构建有借鉴意义，但首先必须考察其适用性。
在社会转型期，利益日趋多元化、利益群体的形成是市场经济发展的一种必然趋势。在我国，房地产存在不同的利益主体已是不争的事实。房地产商、购房者、地方政府、中央政府、银行等所处的地位不同，代表的利益不同，考虑问题的立场也不同，其利益之争十分激烈。就房地产产业链而言，上游市场的地方政府、银行与开发商存在相互依存、互相促进的需要，也有互相挟持、风险互动的可能；而下游市场的需求者，既有出于消费目的的真实需求者，也有出于投资考虑的投资需求者，两者对房市荣衰、房价涨跌的偏好也不尽相同。各个利益主体间的合作和竞争使其对房地产金融风险的影响相当复杂。就政府调控而言，一方面，中央政府多头监管，既怕过冷，又怕过热；另一方面，地方政府既是市场的管制者又是市场的参与者——这重重的矛盾使得政策调控很难做到公正无偏。
利益群体的形成本身不是坏事，它可以将一些较为分散的利益要求转换为合法的、建设性的利益表达，便于政府了解不同利益群体的利益诉求，协调各种利益关系。但利益集团力量的失衡却可能造成利益表达的失衡，作用于房地产金融风险的生成过程，其化解也绝非单靠某种融资模式的创新就可以完全解决的。
与此同时，房地产融资模式变革的背后是一组以资金转移为中心的金融关系的重构。每一种新的融资工具都是对资金供给者、需求者以及中介机构等主体的重新界定，使债权人、债务人、股东、投资者的利益角色现身，并安置在特定的权利义务结构下，实现了利益与风险、风险与风险承担能力的正确配置。换言之，融资模式的演进必然涉及对原有利益结构与风险承担格局的调整，总是受到利益矛盾的影响。
因此，研究我国房地产业金融风险及其化解问题就必然考虑各利益集团的力量对比和互动作用，实质上是研究各利益主体怎样作用于我国房地产金融风险的生成。只有从利益集团作用出发才能厘清房地产金融风险的生成现状与化解之途，确保房地产融资体系构建的制度基础。
1.2 研究现状述评
1.2.1 国外研究综述
20世纪90年代开始，国外大量文献关注于银行信贷与房地产价格、房地产周期波动的关系。研究者从房地产价格形成的泡沫特性（Carey，1990）、银行放贷决策行为（Herring和Wachter，1999；Pavlov和Wachter，2004）以及银行在传播商业周期中的作用机理（Allen和Gale，1998）等不同层面的分析，都认为银行信贷对房地产周期有放大作用。
在此背景下，资产证券化成为促进房地产业健康发展的重要举措，以抵押贷款证券化为主的房地产金融工具设计和房地产金融工具的投资组合成为主要的研究主题，而专注于资产证券化对房地产业与金融业风险互动作用的文献却极其有限。如艾伦和戈尔（Allen and Gale，1997）提出金融体系风险分担理论，认为资产证券化提供了一种将资产的收益和风险有效识别和细分的机制，为资产运营主体根据不同的需求分散和转移风险提供了条件，这一研究成为房地产融资多元化分散风险的理论依据。也有文献开始从银行角度研究银行房地产市场风险管理，劳斯伯格（Lausberg，2001）首次将银行房地产信贷的市场风险进行分类并阐释其对银行资产负债表项目及银行股价波动的影响；斯波瑞曼和甘藤贝恩（Spremann and Gantenbein，2006）认为评估银行房地产信贷风险相当困难，必须考虑不同市场的异质性：各类房地产信贷的期限；利率结构；税收不同；每个国家居民的债务承受力也有差异。
2007年，美国次贷危机爆发，证券化的房地产金融市场是否产生新的风险开始引起关注，除少量研究涉及房地产金融资产证券化的系统风险，如，科夫和克尔耶夫（Kiff and Klyuev，2009）提出投资者因信息不充分过度信赖评级机构，而评级机构与投资者间的激励不相容使评级机构有提高次级债信用级别的利益驱动并导致房贷风险低估。布罗米尔（Brunner-meier，2009）分析了资产证券化工具风险估值与评估的困难，认为历史数据的缺失与模型计价法使市场主体承受了其未意识到的风险，信息不充分导致了风险低估。马丁和文图拉（Martin and Ventura，2010）建模指出，当住房泡沫破裂形成共同冲击，导致个体银行失败时，风险会由流动性渠道在链条式传送过程中被显著放大。文献多集中在对危机原因、影响的解析和政府“救市”的治理措施及其评价（如William Poole，2007；Purnan-andam，2008；Greenlaw等，2008；Herring，2008；Calomiris，2008；Ash-craft and Schuermann，2008；Gorton，2008），研究者基本认为次贷危机并不是对资产证券化方式的否定，但对于次贷危机的问题环节并没有达成完全一致的共识。
1.2.2 国内研究综述
1.2.2.1资产证券化
在我国，关于资产证券化的研究分为三类：
一是对资产证券化创新的运作机理、微观正面绩效的译介性论述，剖析其在我国房地产业的广阔应用空间。研究成果可以分为两个阶段：早期文献多侧重于对资产证券化基本理论的系统论述，其代表性的如
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