作者：国家能源局石油天然气司,国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所,国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心
出版社：石油工业出版社
格式: AZW3, DOCX, EPUB, MOBI, PDF, TXT
中国天然气发展报告．2017试读：
China Natural Gas Development Report (2017) Editorial Board(Following the surname stroke order)
Chairpersons:WANG Yiming LI Fanrong LING Yueming
Deputy Chairpersons:LIU Deshun GAO Shiji XIE Chengxiang
Committee Members:WANG Jing WANG Guoli SHI Yunqing CHENG ChiLIU Bing LU Feng LI Yinghua LI JifengWU Yugen HONG Tao GUO Jiaofeng HAN JingkuanLU Shangrong CAI Shenghua PAN Jiping
Advisors:MA Yongsheng WANG Xiangzeng SONG Yonghua
ZHANG YuqingLI Xiaotang JIN Zhijun ZHAO Wenzhi HE KebinHAO Fang GAO Deli KANG Yuzhu HUANG WeiheHAN Yingduo TONG Xiaoguang ZENG Xingqiu
Coordinator:GUO Jiaofeng
Principal Institutions:Oil and Gas Department, National Energy AdministrationInstitute for Resources and Environmental Policies,
Development Research Center of the State CouncilCenter for Oil and Gas Resource Strategies, Ministry of Land
and Resources
Supporting Institutions:Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of
SciencesShanghai International Energy Exchange CorporationSchool of Environment, Tsinghua UniversityChina Petroleum Planning and Engineering InstituteSinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research
InstituteCNOOC Research InstituteResearch Institute of Yanchang Petroleum (Group) CO. LTD
Publishing and Translation:Petroleum Industry PressPreface
Looking back on 2016, the world’s natural gas market maintained steady growth at low oil prices. Led by shale gas, reduced cost of gas production supported a steady rise in global production, of which the United States accounted for 40%. After the "shale gas revolution", global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) oversupply has triggered the second natural gas revolution. The globalization of natural gas market is increasingly manifested with more flexible natural gas pricing mechanism and business model. The addition of new suppliers and demanders also brought endogenous impetus and diversified options to global supply and trade. As the main forces of the future natural gas consumption growth, China and other developing countries would play a more active role in global environmental governance and natural gas market construction.
Following the energy revolution development strategy of the Party Central Committee and State Council, the "13th Five-Year" Planning for Energy Development and the "13th Five-Year" Planning for Natural Gas Development further clarified that it is necessary to accelerate the natural gas development, raise the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption, and develop natural gas into one of the main energy sources in China. Since 2016, China’s air pollution control efforts have been enhanced and natural gas market-oriented reform initiatives and supporting policies have been intensively introduced, which contribute to the rebound of the natural gas market competitiveness. The decelerated-growth momentum of natural gas consumption in 2014 and 2015 has been reversed, returning to the track of rapid development in 2016. In the decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way, China should be guided by the new development concept of "innovation, coordination, green, opening and sharing" and fully affirm the low carbon nature and cleanliness of natural gas. With emerging market development and clean fuel substitution as the starting point, natural gas system reform and mechanism would be deepened. It needs to fully liberalize the competitive environments, strengthen the supervision of transmission and distribution, reduce the cost of terminal gas utilization, drive the large-scale and efficient utilization of natural gas, coordinate the development of middle and lower streams of the industry, and greatly increase the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption, to serve China economic and social development, air pollution prevention and control, and raise Chinese people’s living standard.1. Global Natural Gas Development [1]Status in 2016
The global natural gas supply capacity has continued to increase, especially the LNG exporting capacity in Australia, North America and other places. Therefore, the overall loosening of the supply and demand situation and the low price trend have lasted in recent years, stimulating the development of the world’s natural gas trade, and promoting the formation of a unified global natural gas market. China natural gas supply channels are more diversified, and the support capacity has been improved steadily. The storage and transportation facilities have been further enhanced, and the consumption growth rate has picked up. The overall balance of natural gas supply and demand has been maintained. Natural gas market reform policy and pilot measures have been successively introduced to promote the industry reform to develop in depth.(1) Natural Gas Resources Potential
Abundant Global Natural Gas Resources. At the end of 2015, global conventional natural gas reserves were 567.5 Tcm with 99.3 [2]Tcm cumulative production. Unconventional gas reserves were 583.9 Tcm (including 98.9 Tcm of tight gas, 224.1 Tcm of shale gas, 52.9 Tcm of coalbed methane, 184.0 Tcm of hydrate gas, and 24.0 Tcm of water-soluble gas) . In recent years, significant discoveries have been made in the Permian basin and other shale plays of the United States, the Mediterranean around Israel and Cyprus, Central America and other new areas and new layers, which further demonstrated the great potential of the world’s natural gas resources.
Great Potential of China Natural Gas Resources. According to National Oil and Gas Resources Dynamic Evaluation (2015), China’s conventional natural gas (including tight gas) resources were 90.3 Tcm, of which 50.1 Tcm are reserves. The shale gas resources shallower than 4500 m are 121.8 Tcm, of which 21.8 Tcm were reserves. The coalbed methane resources shallower than 2000 m were 30.1 Tcm, of which 12.5 Tcm are reserves.[3]
At the end of 2016, China’s proven conventional natural gas (including the tight gas) resources were 11.7 Tcm with 1.4 Tcm cumulative production and 5.2 Tcm remaining reserves. The proven resources rate and the recovery ratio of proven reserves were 13.0% and 12.4%, respectively. The proven resources of coalbed methane were 692.83 Bcm with 24.11 Bcm cumulative production and 334.4 Bcm remaining reserves. The proved resources rate and recovery ratio of proven reserves were 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively. For shale gas, the proven resources were 544.13 Bcm with 13.62 Bcm cumulative production and the remaining reserves were 122.41 Bcm. The proven resource rate and recovery ratio of proven reserves were 0.4% and 2.5%, respectively. Although China’s proven natural gas resources rate and the recovery ratio of proven reserves were low, its resources potential could be improved by technology innovation and development. The major success of offshore gas hydrate pilot production in 2017 further reflected a great resource potential.(2) Gas production and supply capacity
Increasing Production of Global Natural Gas. The global natural gas production was 3.55 Tcm in 2016 with an increase of 0.02 Tcm from 2015. Of those production, the top five countries in annual output were United States (749.2 Bcm), Russia (579.4 Bcm), Iran (202.4 Bcm), Qatar (181.2 Bcm) and Canada (152.0 Bcm), respectively. In terms of regions, North America produced 948.4 Bcm, former Soviet Union produced 764.1 Bcm, Middle East produced 637.8 Bcm, Asia Pacific produced 579.9 Bcm, accounting for 26.7%, 21.5%, 18.0% and 16.3% of the global total production, respectively.[4]
Further Enhancement of China Natural Gas Supply Capacity . China natural gas production was 136.9 Bcm in 2016, with a y-o-y growth of 1.7%. Among them, shale gas production was 7.9 Bcm, with a 72% y-o-y increase, the coalbed methane production was 4.5 Bcm, with a slight increase compared with 2015, and the coal gasification production was 2.16 Bcm, with a 15% y-o-y increase. The total gas production of Sichuan-Chongqing, Ordos, Tarim, and offshore areas was 111.59 Bcm, accounting for 83.2% of China’s total production.
With the steady increase of natural gas import, the LNG import raised substantially. In 2016, China imported 72.1 Bcm natural gas, accounting for 35.0% of the total consumption. Among those, the imported pipeline gas was 38.3 Bcm, with a 7.6% y-o-y increase, and the imported LNG was 33.8 Bcm, with a 31.0% y-o-y increase.
The natural gas infrastructure became more complete, with furt-her improvement in the capability of storage, transportation and coordination. Major infrastructure projects were completed, including the East Section of West-East Natural Gas Transmission Project Phase III, Dagang-Yongqing Natural Gas Pipeline, Guangxi Liquefied Natural Gas Receiving Station, Jintan Salt Cavern Gas Storage, etc. Other major projects, such as Shaanxi-Beijing Natural Gas Pipeline Phase IV, Sino-Russia East Line, Wen 23 Gas Storage, etc., made accelerated progresses. At the end of 2016, the total completed and operating natural gas pipelines reached 68, 000 km. The total gas transmission capacity of the main pipeline network was more than 280 Bcm/year. The accumulated number of underground gas storages was 18, with a total volume of 6.4 Bcm. 13 LNG stations was put into operation, with a total receiving capacity of 51.3 million tons/year. In July 2016, under the unforeseen interruption of the Hubei Enshi Section of Sichuan-East Gas Pipeline by landslides and shortage of imported gas from the Central Asian Pipeline, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC achieved the mutual cooperation through increasing and swapping supply and other ways.(3) Natural Gas Consumption Level
Continued Growth of Global Natural Gas Consumption. The global natural gas consumption was 3.5 Tcm in 2016, with a 1.8% y-o-y increase, which yetis still below the average growth rate (2.3%) in the past 10 years. The gas proportion in the global primary energy consumption was 24.1% in 2016, which was 0.1% higher than 2015. Countries with more than 100 Bcm natural gas consumption included the United States (778.6 Bcm), Russia (390.9 Bcm), China (205.8 Bcm, excluding Hong Kong and Macao), Iran (200.8 Bcm), Japan (111.2 Bcm), and Saudi Arabia (109.4 Bcm) . In terms of regions, North America accounted for 27.3%, Asia Pacific accounted for 20.4%, Europe accounted for 13.8%, CIS (Common wealth of Independent States) accounted for 15.3%, and Middle East accounted for 14.5%, of the global total consumption, respectively.
Continued Growth of China Natural Gas Consumption. China’s natural gas consumption was 205.8 Bcm in 2016 with a 6.6% y-o-y increase (excluding Hong Kong and Macao), higher than 2015. The proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption structure was 6.4%.
Promoted by favoring factors, such as low price, clean heating, and new urbanization, urban gas and natural gas consumption for power generation increased significantly. The urban gas consumption increased from 62.8 Bcm (2015) to 72.9 Bcm (2016), with its proportion raising from 32.5% (2015) to 35.4% (2016) . The natural gas consumption for power generation increased from 28.4 Bcm (2015) to 36.6 Bcm (2016), with its proportion raising from 14.7% (2015) to 17.8% (2016) . The industrial fuel consumption was 71.2 Bcm, accounting for 34.6%, while the gas consumption of 25.1 Bcm in the chemical industry continued being in downturn, with its proportion decreasing from14.6% to 12.2%. In 2016, the gas-use population exceeded 300 million for the first time.
Natural gas consumption was mainly concentrated in the Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta and Southeast Coastal Areas. The consumption of these three areas was 101.9 Bcm, accounting for 50% of total consumption of 2016. Jiangsu, Guangdong, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Beijing and Shandong consumed more than 10 Bcm natural gas. Among those provinces, the consumption of Shandong exceeded 10 Bcm for the first time. The seasonal characteristics of natural gas consumption are obvious. The average peak difference between winter and summer was 1.7:1 in 2016. As the proceeding of the "Coal-to-Gas" winter clean heating project, the peak valley difference for winter and summer in North China was further widened.(4) Current Status of Natural Gas Trade
More Active Global Natural Gas Trade. The global natural gas trade volume was 1.08 Tcm in 2016, with an increase of 0.04 Tcm compared with 2015, accounting for 30.5% of the total natural gas consumption. The pipeline and LNG trade volumes were737.5 Bcm and 346.6 Bcm. In 2016, the total LNG trade was 265 million tons with a 17 million tons y-o-y increase, of which Australian exports increased 15 million tons (50% consumed by China), the United States Sabine Pass exported 2.9 million tons, Qatar, Indonesia, and Angola exports increased 3.8 million tons, while the Atlantic countries decreased by 3.5 million tons. From the demand side, Europe and the Asia Pacific region were still the major natural gas import areas, while imports to China, India and other emerging market countries increased significantly. In 2016, the volume of imported natural gas in Europe and the Asia Pacific region was 779.4 Bcm, accounting for 71.9% of the world total trade volume. The import to Europe was 472.2 Bcm, with a 3.6% y-o-y increase. The import to Asia Pacific region was 307.2 Bcm, with a 7.2% y-o-y increase. The import to emerging market countries was 146.4 Bcm, with a 16.5% y-o-y increase.
The natural gas market was more open with more flexible trade [5]methods and combination strategies. In the continuation of 2015’s overall relaxed supply and demand situation, spot and short-term contracts of natural gas were gradually increasing. Spot trade accounted for 18% of total LNG trade with an increase of 3% compared with 2015. The average life of long-term contract decreased from about 18 years in 2008 to 8 years in 2016. The average gas volume of a single contract decreased from about 2.3 million tons/year in 2008 to 900 thousand tons/year in 2016.
Affected by low crude oil price and relaxed natural gas supply and demand, the natural gas price fell down for the second consecutive year in 2016. The Asian LNG average import price linked to "Japan [6]Customs-cleared Crude" (JCC) was $6.94/MMBtu, which was a 31% y-o-y reduction. The annual average price of the Henry Center was $2.46/MMBtu, with a slight decline compared with 2015. The British National Balancing Point (NBP) average price was $4.69/MMBtu, with a 28.6% y-o-y decrease. The world natural gas trade changed from regional market to global unified market. The regional price difference was gradually reduced. Taking LNG spots of the United States as an example, the CIF prices have been gradually converging in Europe and Asia.
With the completion and operation of LNG export terminals in Australia, the United States and other places, LNG market competition became more intense. Through the renewal of long-term contract, price review or renegotiation, the pricing formula of LNG became more and more diverse, gradually being linked to Henry Hub or oil gas mixing model. The restriction of delivery destination in LNG sale and purchase agreements (SPA) would be weakened gradually. The contract period would be more flexible and short-term and spot contracts would become more and more common. IEA statistics showed that the contracts, limiting delivery destinations, accounted for 60% in 2014. This ratio decreased to 40% in 2015 and further lowered in 2016.
Diversified China Natural Gas Import. There were 18 natural gas importers. In 2016, LNG import from Australia to China grew by a large margin, reaching 11.98 million tons, which was a 116% y-o-y increase. Through the third party transporter, China received 199 thousand tons (3 ships) of LNG from the United States for the first time in 2016.
Natural gas imports were still dominated by PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, while the involvement of other enterprises has been gradually deepening. In 2016, the three major oil companies imported 70.6 Bcm of natural gas, accounting for 97.9% of China’s total imports. Other urban gas companies and power generation enterprises, such as Beijing Gas, Guangdong JOVO and China Gas, acquired oversea resources actively by signing the LNG trade contracts and spot purchases to increase imports. In 2016, 1.5 Bcm of natural gas was imported by those urban gas companies, accounting for 2.1% of China’s total imports. The ENN-Total, ENN-Chevron, ENN-Origin, JOVO-Petronas, and JOVO-Chevron newly signed various types of natural gas trade contracts totaled nearly 3 million tons/year. Those contracts were mainly in the medium and short term within 10 years. In addition, Shenzhen Gas, Xinjiang Guanghui, Guangzhou Gas and other enterprises were also actively promoting LNG purchase agreement negotiations.
The rapid growth of LNG imports led the rapid development of liquid distribution model. The national LNG liquid distribution grew by more than 35% for the two consecutive years, accounting for nearly 10% of the total consumption. Nevertheless, the annual operating rate of onshore LNG plants was less than 36%. The LNG liquid distribution has not only entered into the traditional market of LPG, which effectively supports the clean heating and "Coal-to-Gas" in remote areas, but also entered into the pipeline coverage area, including the gas power plants and large industrial users. A great breakthrough was achieved in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places, which effectively compensated for the lack of gas supply and pipeline transportation capacity, and opened up a broader market space. The liquid distribution model promoted the formation of a competitive pattern at consumer terminals.(5) Progress of China Natural Gas Market Reform
Intensive Introduction of Reform Policies and Initiatives. Since 2016, natural gas market reform has made positive progresses, especially a series of policies in the areas of strengthening planning, upstream access, pipeline network reform, efficient usage, market pricing and market regulation, which have laid a solid foundation for the oil and gas industry reform implementation.
Firstly, improve the strategy and planning system. Since the second half of 2016, "13th Five-Year" Energy Development Planning (NDRC Energy 〔2016〕No. 2744), "13th Five-Year" Natural Gas Development Planning (NDRC Energy 〔2016〕No. 2743), Shale Gas Development Strategic Action Plan (2016—2020) (National Energy 〔2016〕No. 255) and "13th Five-Year" Coalbed Methane (Coal Gas) Development Planning had been successively released. To strengthen the planning and management of oil and gas industry, improve the scientific and rational planning mechanism, give full play to the guiding and restriction function of the planning, perfect the planning and dynamic adjustment mechanism, establish implementation, supervision, inspection, evaluation and assessment mechanism of the planning, and ensure the effective implementation of the national five-year oil and natural gas special planning, the National Energy Administration issued Measures for the planning and administration of oil and natural gas (National Energy 〔2017〕No. 24) in July 2017.
Secondly, play a decisive role in the upstream sector resource allocation, and orderly promote the oil and gas exploration and development system reform. The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Land and Resources, National Energy Administration, local governments, and oil and gas companies cooperated together to actively promote the construction of shale gas exploration and development demonstration area (pilot), such as Changning-Weiyuan, Zhaotong, Fuling and Chuannan, explore the new mechanism and cooperative development model of shale gas exploration and development, strengthen technology research and development, and advance the scale of shale gas and commercial development. The new patterns of competition for shale gas exploration blocks would also be explored. Ministry of Land and Resources entrusted Guizhou government to organize the auction of Zhengan block, containing Anye Well-1, to accelerate Zhengan shale gas exploration and development. In addition to Guizhou, a number of shale gas exploration blocks were selected for auction in other provinces. Ministry of Land and Resources entrusted Shanxi government to carry out the approval and registration of some coalbed methane exploration and development in its administrative area (Ministerial Order No. 65) . It is conducive to give full play to the local government initiative, stimulate market vitality, and help the economic transformation and development of Shanxi Province. Shanxi province established a coordinated linkage mechanism with Ministry. Shanxi province implemented the relevant requirements actively, and introduced the supporting policies to strengthen standardized management, enhance supervision and optimize services, having achieved positive progress.
Thirdly, strengthen the overall pipeline link pricing management and cost regulation, and effectively reduce the transmission and distribution price. In August 2016, Circular on Strengthening the Supervision of the Transmission and Distribution Price of Local Natural
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