作者：北京卡达克数据技术中心
出版社：人民邮电出版社
格式: AZW3, DOCX, EPUB, MOBI, PDF, TXT
Annual Report on Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle in China (2016)试读：
Abstract
This annual report comprises 8 chapters, it respectively narrates energy situation and vehicle fuel consumption, energy saving and new energy vehicle policy interpretation, market characteristics of passenger cars, passenger car fuel consumption status, development of commercial vehicles, the development of energy saving and new energy vehicles technology, energy saving competitiveness analysis, and future prospects. This book delivers an in-depth analysis and research on the automotive industry, automakers and their products from the perspective of policy, technology and market. Specifically speaking, this book will look into energy status quo, policy guidance, fuel consumption, technical level, product competitiveness, and international trend, etc. It also attempts to interpret internal logics behind the development of China’s auto industry from the perspective of energy-saving and environmental protection, so as to provide reference for insiders.
Preface
China’s automotive industry has seen rapid development for many years,and has stepped into a stable growth period. In 2015, China’s auto production and sales respectively registered record 245.033 and 245.976 million units,taking a leading position in the world. The structure of the industry has been improving, its product lines have been enriched, and its technology has advanced. Government and industry keep pushing forward supply side reform,developing strategy for energy-saving and new energy vehicles’ (NEVs) in a systematic fashion, using various measures. Meanwhile, diverse means such as industry management, financial subsidy, and technical innovation have been adopted to support industrial development and to guide industrial transformation and upgrade. Achievements have been made in terms of energy-saving and environmental protection, as well as green and low-carbon development, etc.
The management mechanism of the auto industry keeps improving. First, energy-saving and NEV standardization has been promoted, and a series of national standards including fuel consumption limit for passenger cars, evaluation methods, EV battery, and driving motors, etc. Second,the management method of passenger vehicle fuel consumption has been transformed to “limit+corporate average”, and the disclosure mechanism of CAFC calculation is mature now. Third, energy-saving and NEV industry is under better regulation, and the auto battery sector has also been better governed. CAFC and new energy credits management regulations have been put in place and industrial management will enter a new stage.
Financial and taxation supporting policies have been continuously carried out and planned in advance. In terms of financial subsidy, NEV promotion policy based on the Thirteenth Five-year Plan was introduced in advance. Forms of subsidy have been enriched, and charging infrastructure rewards have been given to provinces (regions, cities) with larger scale of NEV promotion and an open market. On taxation preferential policies, exemption or reduction on vehicle purchasing tax as well as vehicle and vessel use tax has been conducted for NEVs and passenger vehicles with 1.6 L displacement and below. Guidance on the consumption side has been strengthened. The continuous progress of taxation and financial policies has significantly driven market development and technical upgrade.
Energy-saving and technical level of NEVs have substantially improved. On the one hand, OEMs make more investment on key components and energy-saving technologies of powertrain such as efficient engines and transmissions. Advanced technologies have been embedded in more vehicle models. Compared with JVs and import corporations, the application of technologies including turbocharging has grown faster in Chinese local corporates. On the other hand, NEVs have seen rapid development, and 380,000 units were produced in 2015. R&D level of battery, motors and electric control is rising up, and more component manufacturers are quickly emerging. Various vehicles with different technical roadmaps and technical solutions have provided guarantee for the sustainable development of NEVs.
Fuel economy of passenger vehicles has been improving but the pressure still remains. The fleet-wide CAFC in 2015 registered 7.04 L/100 km, which is 0.18 L/100 km lower than 2014. It was 6.72 L/100 km if taking NEVs into account, which has achieved the target of 6.9 L/100 km set in the national plan. Regulation on fuel consumption of passenger vehicles has entered Phase 4 in 2016, and target values for all curb weight segments are 30% stricter on average than 2015, targeting at 5.0 L/100 km in 2020. Corporates face pressure in achieving the target, and coordinated development of energy-saving vehicles and NEVs will become a key factor.
Despite such progress, certain issues still remain and need to be solved immediately. First, the development of NEVs relies heavily on subsidy. From 2013 to 2015, the subsidy and financial incentives from central government recorded 28.444 billion RMB, and local governments granted more than 20 billion RMB. Expansion of NEV market causes enormous financial subsidy pressure,thus it is imperative to build a market-oriented development regime to replace subsidy, so that the market can be well prepared further development of NEVs. Second, the safety of NEV has been more serious than ever. In recent two years, NEV self-burning accidents happened more than once, causing damages to people’s assets and safety. If dealt inappropriately, the safety issues will directly impact the future of emerging industries. Consequently, it is imperative to strengthen supervision and administration on all segments including market access, production, sales and application, etc.
During the Twelfth Five-year Plan, energy-saving vehicles and NEVs enjoyed a positive development landscape in general, but several problems still need to be solved. There remains room for progress. Made in China 2025 set energy saving and NEVs as one of the key development areas, and put forward new requirements for the transformation and upgrade of China’s auto industry, which fortifies the future direction of energy saving and NEVs. Currently, China has built a sound foundation for promoting energy saving vehicles and NEVs, but the following-up development still needs in-depth evaluation.
In order to comprehensively demonstrate China’s endeavor and achievements on energy saving and NEVs, centering around policies, technology and market, this book delivers an in-depth analysis and research on the automotive industry, automakers and their products from the perspective of policy,technology and market. Specifically speaking, this book will look into energy status quo, policy guidance, fuel consumption, technical level, product competitiveness, and international trend, etc. It also attempts to interpret internal logics behind the development of China’s auto industry from the perspective of energy-saving and environmental protection, so as to provide reference for insiders. There might be omissions and mistakes in this book due to time restraints. Suggestions for improvement will be gratefully received.
Editorial Board MembersNovember 2016Chapter 1Energy Situation and Vehicle Fuel Consumption
Under the background of weak but still rising global primary energy consumption, China’s primary energy consumption demand growth in 2015 fell to its lowest level since 1998, in which crude oil consumption increased faster than coal and natural gas, making China the largest source of consumption demand growth, and meanwhile its dependence on imported crude oil reached 61.3%, exceeding 60% for the first time.
Though energy scenario is severe, China’s automotive energy keeps growing rapidly. Estimates show that in 2015 total vehicle fuel consumption reached 225 million tons, an increase of 3.8% compared with previous year. Total vehicle fuel consumption accounted for 78.07% of total gasoline and diesel apparent consumption. All these indicate there is still a long way to go for automotive energy saving.1.1 Global Energy Supply and Demand
(1) Primary energy consumption increases but its growth has slowed down
Global primary energy consumption has been rising for six years in a row by 2015. Despite that in 2015 the global economy maintained a growth rate similar to 2014, global primary energy consumption growth kept slowing down to merely 1.0%, as shown in Fig.1-1.Figure 1-1 Global primary energy consumption and growth rate in the period of 1965-2015(Data sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy)
(2) Petroleum and natural gas consumption growth speed up
Generally speaking, oil and natural gas consumption were still on the rise. With regard to the energy mix, petroleum takes up the largest share of primary energy consumption by 32.9%, an increase of 2.0% compared with 2014, and the growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points. Petroleum consumption increased from 30.717 MBPD in 1965 to 95.008 MBPD in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate at 2.28%. Natural gas consumption was up by 1.7% from 2014, and growth rate increased 1.2 percentage points, as shown in Fig.1-2 and Fig.1-3.Figure 1-2 Global oil production and consumption in the period of 1965-2015(Data sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy)Figure 1-3 Global natural gas production and consumption in the period of 1965-2015(Data sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy)1.2 China’s Energy Supply and Demand
(1) China’s energy consumption growth rate falls
After being on the rise for 34 years continuously, China’s 2015 primary energy consumption growth rate fell to its lowest level since 1998, due to economic structure transformation from energy-intensive manufacturing industry to upgraded service industry. Despite of this, in a global context, China still has the fastest growth of absolute energy demand, as shown in Fig.1-4.Figure 1-4 China’s primary energy consumption and growth rate in the period of 1965-2015(Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, BP Statistical Review of World Energy)
(2) China’s demand-supply gap of petroleum and natural gas continues to expand
Petroleum and gas production were 7.659 MBPD and 59.36 billion cubic meters short of the demand respectively in 2015, an increase of 0.704 MBPD and 2.56 billion cubic meters from 2014. Natural gas consumption growth rate falls from 23.3% to 4.7% since 2011, as shown in Fig.1-5 and Fig.1-6.Figure 1-5 China’s petroleum production and consumption in the period of 1965-2015(Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, BP Statistical Review of World Energy)Figure 1-6 China’s natural gas production and consumption in the period of 1965-2015(Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, BP Statistical Review of World Energy)
(3) China is increasingly dependent on imported crude oil
Though crude oil production has seen a stable increase, China’s crude oil imports climbed rapidly, leading to greater dependence on foreign crude oil. In 2015 China imported 61.3% of crude-oil needs, as shown in Tab.1-1.
There are two reasons why China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in 2015: one is the state increased strategic petroleum reserves under the background of low oil price in 2015; the second is that newly-built refineries mainly refine imported crude oil. Surge of crude oil imports was accompanied by a significant increase of petroleum product exports, 2015 has seen 23.5% more product oil export than in 2014.Table 1-1 China dependence on foreign crude oil1.3 2015 Vehicle Fuel Consumption Measurement
Total vehicle fuel consumption measurement adopts the following equation:overall vehicle fuel consumption=vehicle ownership×fuel economy×annual mileage.
Measurement logic: use car ownership historical data, annual sales and survival rate to subdivide car ownership structure by vehicle type and age, and then multiply car ownership of each category by respective fuel economy data(fuel consumption per hundred kilometers) and corresponding annual mileage. The result will be the overall fuel consumption.
Below is the value of parameters used to calculate the overall vehicle fuel consumption in 2015.1.3.1 Annual Mileage
In 2014, Data Center of China Automotive Technology & Research Center(CATARC) conducted a systematic and comprehensive survey on vehicle annual mileage in 2013. Passenger car and commercial vehicle were studied separately, and full consideration was given to vehicle type and region when studying passenger car.
Passenger car mileage survey mainly relied on mileage data and corresponding date data from key enterprises’ 4S store sales and maintenance records, supplemented with a small number of investigations.
Commercial vehicle mileage survey mainly relied on questionnaires for commercial vehicle experts, along with investigations on individual users.
(1) Passenger car mileage
Passenger car mileage by region (province) is shown in Fig.1-7. After weighted by region and usage and corrected by experts, the average passenger car annual mileage in 2013 was set at 19,000 km nationwide. Considering vehicle mileage varies little every year, this figure was kept unchanged in 2015.Figure 1-7 2013 private passenger car mileages by regions (provinces)Note: Beijing's traffic controlpolicy has influenced annual mileageto some extent.
(2) Commercial vehicle mileage
The corrected commercial vehicle annual mileage in 2015 is shown in Tab. 1-2, based on the survey on commercial vehicle annual mileage: annual mileages for large bus, midsize bus and light-duty bus were 54,000 km,52,000 km and 37,000 km respectively; annual mileages for heavy-duty truck,medium-duty truck, light-duty truck and mini-truck were 55,000 km, 35,000 km,28,000 km and 19,500 km respectively, as shown in Tab.1-2.Table 1-2 Commercial vehicle annual mileage1.3.2 Average Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Types
Fuel consumption data of various types of vehicles is the result after output being weighted (passenger car average fuel consumption calculation does not offer preferential to new energy vehicles).
Except that passenger car data of 2013, 2014 and 2015 include import vehicles, other vehicle type and age data were all from domestic vehicles. After adding weights of vehicle fuel consumption and production data by year, fuel consumption is summed up by vehicle type and age, as shown in Tab.1-3.Table 1-3 Fuel consumption by vehicle type and age1.3.3 Gasoline and Diesel Consumption Calculation Result in 2015
Based on gasoline and diesel calculation model and relevant data,China’s automotive petrol and diesel overall consumption in 2015 reaches 225 million tons, 78.07% of total apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel, as shown in Tab. 1-4 and Tab. 1-5. 2013-2015 automotive gasoline and diesel consumption are shown in Fig.1-8.Table 1-4 2015 China automotive petrol and diesel consumption by vehicle typeTable 1-5 2015 China’s overall automotive gasoline and diesel consumptionFigure 1-8 2013-2015 automotive gasoline and diesel consumption
In 2015, commercial vehicle consumed 54.4% of total gasoline and diesel,while passenger car used 45.6%, showing that fuel consumption of commercial vehicle was still higher than that of passenger car. With a rapid increase of passenger car ownership, the share of passenger car fuel consumption will increase year by year.Chapter 2Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Policy Interpretation
Along with rapid development of automotive industry and sharp increase of vehicle ownership, increasingly serious environment pollution and energy pressure have become the main problems to China’s automotive industry development. Accelerating cultivation and development of fuelefficient vehicles and new energy vehicles (NEVs) is not only an urgent task to effectively reduce energy and environment pressure and promote sustainable development of automotive industry, but also a strategy to speed up automotive industry transformation and upgrading, foster new economic growth point and international competitive advantage. the CPC Central Committee and State Council attach great importance to development of fuel-efficient vehicles and NEVs, and relevant departments have improved policy system and introduced subsidies, taxation,infrastructure incentives, government procurement and other support policies that cover vehicle planning, R&D, production, sales, use and other aspects of industrial chain. Thanks to policy incentives and guidance, China’s fuel-efficient vehicles and NEVs have made great progress. In 2015, domestic passenger vehicles’ corporate average fuel consumption(CAFC) reached 6.65 L/100 km (including NEVs). By the end of 2015, China has met national target by cumulatively producing 497,000 NEVs,leading the world’s NEV production. Though China’s fuel-efficient vehicle and NEV industry has made such achievement, it is still facing many problems, such as low enterprise motivation without coercive means, NEV subsidy dependency and so on. It is inevitable for emerging industry to experience problems, but such problems also point out future direction of government management. Without safety and quality, energy saving and NEV industry cannot last long, and it is not a sustainable way as well to rely on government’s “visible hand” intervention. Next step development of this industry still needs to focus on safety control, quality improvement and market-oriented management means to guarantee healthy and sustainable development.2.1 Whole Industry Policy Support2.1.1 Development Plan
Developing fuel-efficient cars and NEVs has become a national strategic choice. In order to speed up the development of energy saving and new energy automotive industry, the State Council has consecutively released guidance files, which clarified the goals and direction of automotive industry development and guided automotive companies’ product planning. In October 2010,the State Council issued Decision to Speed up Cultivating and Developing Strategic Emerging Industries (State Council, [2010], No.32), which listed NEVs as one of the seven key development areas of national strategic emerging industries, and promoted application and industrialization of PHEV and BEV.In June 2012, the State Council issued Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles Industry Development Planning (2012-2020) (State Council, [2012],No.22), which put forward goals of energy saving and new energy automotive industry development, and decided to “focus on promoting BEV and PHEV industrialization, popularizing non plug-in hybrid vehicles and energy-saving internal combustion engine vehicles to enhance China’s automotive industry technology as a whole”. Made in China 2025 (State Council, [2015], No.28) issued by the State Council in May 2015 listed energy saving and new energy automotive industry as one of the top ten key areas and proposed to “continue to support the development of EV and fuel cell vehicle, master core technology of low-carbon, information-based and intelligent automobile, and enhance the engineering and industrialization ability of power battery, drive motor, efficient IC engine, advanced gearbox, lightweight materials, intelligent control and other core technologies”. MIIT has clarified energy saving and new energy vehicles target while interpreting Made in China 2025: decrease the overall fuel consumption of passenger car to 5 L/100 km by 2020 and 4 L/100 km by 2025;new energy vehicles sales should reach 3 million units by 2025.
Companies’ development directions are clear under China’s planning and guidance. Plans issued by the State Council have laid down keynote to next decade’s automotive industry development, and development of energy saving,and new energy vehicles has become a national strategic choice. Release of national planning document also stabilized automotive industry, so auto companies have gradually increased investment in energy saving and new energy vehicles in recent years and overall industry energy saving capability continues to improve. Average fuel consumption of domestic passenger car companies in 2015 was 6.65 L/100 km (including NEVs), the proportion of advanced transmission, turbocharged engine and other energy-saving technologies adopted in vehicle applications is approaching international level. NEV industry has experienced explosive growth and the 379,000 units’ production in 2015 has made China the biggest country producing and selling NEVs. Now the good momentum of NEV development continues, as large automobile companies such as FAW, Dongfeng and Chang’an have released their NEV development plans for the Thirteenth Five-year Plan.2.1.2 R&D Support
Energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry’s development cost deviated from market acceptance in initial period due to technical and scale limit, and slow industrialization has caused great financing pressure to automobile companies. To improve this industry’s innovation ability and speed up industrialization, relevant national government departments have provided financial supports and tax cuts for R&D expenditure and industrialization stage, which is aimed to relieve enterprise pressure.
National science and technology efforts have supported advanced technology R&D. Since the 10th Five-year Plan(2001-2005), China has launched some major national science and technology projects, such as “EV Science and Technology Major Project”, “Energy-saving and New-Energy Vehicle Key Project”, “EV Science and Technology Key Project” and “NEV Key Project”, which formed an intricate and comprehensive development framework and determined “battery-driven” as our future technology strategy. 19 key projects from NEV industry were selected in 2016 national key R&D plan,including intelligent and lightweight NEVs, hybrid power, lithium power battery and fuel cells, of which the total budget was over 1 billion RMB.
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